Would You Take the Odds? PDF Print E-mail
Director's Perspective
by Dr. Robin Zimmer   
December 03, 2010

lotterySeveral months ago I was standing in line to pay for fuel at a gas station in a neighboring state while several patrons in front of me were shelling out hard earned money for lottery tickets.  I decided long ago that I would not play such games because the odds of winning are out of my comfort zone.  There is no chance of ever seeing me on the nightly news holding an enlarged million dollar lottery check, but then again you won’t see me doling out dollar after dollar in return for, in all probability, worthless ticket stubs.

lotterySeveral months ago I was standing in line to pay for fuel at a gas station in a neighboring state while several patrons in front of me were shelling out hard earned money for lottery tickets.  I decided long ago that I would not play such games because the odds of winning are out of my comfort zone.  There is no chance of ever seeing me on the nightly news holding an enlarged million dollar lottery check, but then again you won’t see me doling out dollar after dollar in return for, in all probability, worthless ticket stubs.  When I finally made it to the cash register to pay for my fuel, I blurted out an unusual request to the cashier.  “Excuse me”, I said, “Could you give me a printed statement on the odds of winning any of the sweepstake games you offer here?”  She flashed me an annoyed look and proceeded to hand me just what I requested, the state’s sweepstake odds table.  After paying for my fuel I glanced at the line of gamers behind me, shook my head and walked out.  Now I had known that the odds of winning were poor, but not this poor.  A gamer’s chance of winning a second prize of $1,000, a first prize of $2,000 or a grand prize of $27,000 were all one in 7.1 million!  Are you kidding?  But get this, the odds of winning the Super Million Dollar prize worth, of course, $1 million was one in 130 million!  I began to wonder at what point people would find the odds unacceptable?  At what point would they stop playing?

I also began to wonder about the odds of finding advanced life on another planet within our universe, and whether any of us would accept those odds or not.  Astronomers tell us that the Milky Way galaxy measures 100,000 light years across and includes planet earth.  While many argue that earth is the only place within this galaxy conducive to advanced life, others hang their bets on advanced extraterrestrial life somewhere out there among the 170 or so billion galaxies.  The odds would seem to be in favor of a second cluster of advanced life somewhere out there among 170 billion galaxies right?  Let’s face it, on the surface I would certainly not bet against those odds.

The odds of a second planet capable of supporting advanced life would be 1 in a thousand trillion.

But of course there is more to it than simply the dazzling number of stars times the mindboggling number of galaxies.  Experts have closely examined the multiple factors or variables necessary for a star or planet in space to support large and advanced life forms, such as those that exist on earth.  These factors include magnetic field, alignment of sun and moon, surface gravity, thickness of surface crust, temperature gradient, atmospheric gasses, axis tilt, rotational period, orbit eccentricity, oceans to continent ratio, oxygen to nitrogen ratios, and on and on.  Some astrobiologists have conservatively used a 1 out of 10 chance that any one variable be correct for advanced life.  If you simply multiplied a chance factor of .1 (1 out of 10) times 20 factors, the odds of a second planet capable of supporting advanced life would be 1 in a thousand trillion.  Now it seems the 1 among 170 billion (galaxies) as noted above pales by comparison.  Moreover, most experts employ 33 factors into this equation, and the odds go off the chart of comprehension to 1 chance in a quintrillion.  A quintrillion has no less than 18 zeros and equals a thousand quadtrillions.  Sounds like deliberate fine tuning to me.

Personally, I would not bet on the existence of advanced extraterrestrial life if the odds of meeting ET were 1 in a thousand trillion, let alone 1 in a quintrillion.  These odds would have to be way over the limit of acceptance for even the most foolish of gamers.  Yes, it appears earth is indeed a very special place and Star Trek movies are correctly categorized as “Sci-Fi”.   The bottom line is that it certainly wouldn’t be prudent to bet against the existence of an omnipotent Creator God when the odds are so overwhelming that He made this single earth capable of supporting a unique and special variety of advanced life.   For those of you who like to roll the dice, don’t bet against this one.  If you’re wrong, it could cost you eternity.

 

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